Sunday, February 22, 2009

India sidesteps US invite for trilateral meet on Afghanistan-Pak

21 Feb 2009, Indrani Bagchi
The Times of India

NEW DELHI: India has sidestepped a US invitation for a ringside seat at a trilateral US-Pakistan-Afghanistan conference scheduled for next week in Washington. This will be Richard Holbrooke's first exercise in the US' attempt to stabilize the Af-Pak region. The conference is part of a more comprehensive strategic review of US policy for the region.
While it has a strong military component, the exercise could also explore the possibility of an eventual deal with some version of the Taliban. The meeting will see high level delegations from Pakistan and Afghanistan led by the two foreign ministers who will participate in the conference.
India will be kept in the loop by the US and Afghanistan, but during Holbrooke's visit, India also made its interests in Afghanistan and its stability very clear. India will officially keep its position of an "interested bystander" watching the unfolding events in this theatre.India sought and received an assurance from the US that its decisions and policies in this region would not make India a "target". In other words, India doesn't want to be unpleasantly surprised by a set of events that adversely affects Indian interests in Afghanistan.
The US right now is furious with Afghanistan president Hamid Karzai for consistently hitting out at America but is equally wary of the Pakistan government particularly after the ill-advised "peace deal" with the Taliban in Swat Valley.It's no secret the Obama administration wants Karzai to go. Therefore, the coming elections in Afghanistan, originally scheduled for May but which may now be delayed until August, will be crucial to whether Karzai can manage to hold on. The Obama inauguration saw four invitees from Afghanistan who might be alternative candidates backed by the US - former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah, former finance minister Ashraf Ghani, former interior minister Ali Ahmed Jalali and governor of Nangarhar Gul Agha Shirzai. It is widely believed that one of these four men would be supported by the US in the coming elections.
India will not get into domestic Afghan politics but will resist attempts to rope in the Taliban into the governing structure, because that would be tantamount to giving the Pak army carte blanche in exercising its policy.Ultimately, any attempt at stabilization in the region would necessitate working hard on the Pakistani system, which is where Holbrooke will find his greatest challenge.

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